S2-2_Masahiro Hashizume
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Climate Change and Human Health
Masahiro Hashizume M.D., PhD
Department of Global Health Policy
Graduate School of Medicine
The University of Tokyo
World Medical Association’s Regional Expert Meeting
in Pacific on the WMA Declaration of Helsinki
November 30, 2023
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（Baseline: 1850～1900）
IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM 2021
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Global surface temperature change relative to
1850-1900
Future annual emissions of CO₂ across
five illustrative scenarios
IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM 2021
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Heat stroke ambulance transport
Approx. 70,000/year on average in 2018-22
Deaths from heat stroke
• Increasing trend
• 1295/year on average in 2018-22
• Elderly people account for 80%
579
318
152145
185206207
404
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904
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1731
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621635
1581
1224
1528
755
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死亡者数（人）
出典：総務省消防庁（https://www.fdma.go.jp/disaster/heatstroke） 出典：人口動態統計より作成
※ 2022年は6-9月の概数
※2010-2014 及び2020年は5月のデータなし
9月
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5月
救急搬送数（人）
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
129
444
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635
1581
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1528
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
自然災害 熱中症
The number of deaths from heat stroke is 5.5 times higher than
the number of deaths from natural disasters (2017~2021 total)
出典：令和４年防災白書および人口動態統計より作図
Natural disasters: heavy rain (landslides), typhoons, heavy snow, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc.
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Natural disasters
Heat stroke
Number
of
deaths
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Future projection of heat stroke ambulance
transport
base period 1981-2000 (MIROC5)
Mid-century (2031-2050)
End of the century (2081-2100)
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
気候変動適応情報プラットフォーム「全国・都道府県情報」 http://a-plat.nies.go.jp/webgis/index.html
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RCP2.6
Mid-century: 1.7 times
End of the century: 1.8 times
RCP8.5
Mid-century: 1.7 times
End of the century: 4.5 times
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◼ 2030-2050
250,000 additional deaths
(A1b)
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Additional deaths due to climate change
• Vulnerable populations
• Children
• Older people
• Low-income countries
• Urban poor (slum dwellers, etc.)
• People with traditional lifestyles
• Coastal residents in small island
countries
IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 7, 2022
Heat-related 38,000
Diarrhoea 48,000
Malaria 60,000
Malnutrition 96,000
Mitigation and adaptation
There is no single answer.
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A-PLAT
http://www.adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/en/climate_change_adapt/index.html
Environmentally sustainable and climate resilient
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Commitment 1: Climate resilient health systems
Commitment 2: Sustainable low carbon health systems
COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference
in Glasgow, UK 2021
COP26 Health Programme
https://www.who.int/initiatives/alliance-for-transformative-action-on-climate-and-health/cop26-health-programme
The Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate Change and Health (ATACH) was
born as a WHO-led mechanism to support delivery on the COP26 health commitments.
It provides a platform for coordination; knowledge and best practice exchange; networks and access to support
and link up to existing initiatives; tackling common challenges; and monitoring global progress.
Commitment 1
• Vulnerability and adaptation assessments
• Health national adaptation plan
• Access to climate change funding for health
Commitment 2
• Health system net zero emissions (ideally by 2050)
• Baseline assessment of GHG emissions of the health system
• Action plan or roadmap
https://www.who.int/initiatives/alliance-for-transformative-action-on-
climate-and-health/country-commitments
78 countries committed to build climate resilient and low carbon health systems.
ATACH
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https://www.who.int/news/item/18-09-2023-leaders-spotlight-the-critical-intersection-between-health-and-climate-ahead-of-cop-s-first-ever-health-day
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Japan’s health care
carbon footprint
6.4%
Japan as third biggest health
care carbon footprint (excluding EU)
Health Care Without Harm. Health Care’s Climate Footprint 2019
Mitigation
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Directly from health care facilities: 17%
Indirect emissions from purchased
electricity, steam, cooling and heating: 12%
Health care supply chain — the
production, transport, use, and
disposal of goods and services: 71%
Health Care Without Harm. Health Care’s Climate Footprint 2019
Mitigation
Health Care Decarbonization
Health Care Without Harm (HCWH)‘s Global Road Map for Health Care Decarbonization 2021
Mitigation
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Charting a course toward zero emissions
Three Pathways
• Pathway 1: Decarbonize health care delivery, facilities, and operations.
• Pathway 2: Decarbonize health care’s supply chain.
• Pathway 3: Accelerate decarbonization in the wider economy and society.
Health Care Without Harm (HCWH)‘s Global Road Map for Health Care Decarbonization 2021
Mitigation
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Seven High-Impact Actions
Health Care Without Harm (HCWH)‘s Global Road Map for Health Care Decarbonization 2021
Mitigation
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net zero by 2040 net zero by 2045
https://greenhospitals.org/news/nhs-england-commits-net-zero-emissions-2040
Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) in the context of the NHS
Mitigation
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◼ Heat Stroke Alert in Japan
• Announced at 5p.m. on the previous day and 5 a.m. on the same day.
• Email distribution services are available.
出典：気象庁HP
Heat-Health Warning Systems
Adaptation
https://www.wbgt.env.go.jp/en/ 18
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The G7 should strengthen their commitment to climate resilient and low-
carbon health systems advocated in the Conference of Parties (COP26).
G7 HIROSHIMA 2023
Nagasaki Health Ministers’ Meeting
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IPCC AR6 WGII 1st Lead Author Meeting, Jan 2019
Thank you!