2020.04.02 WMA – covid Iceland
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The COVID-19 pandemic
and the Icelandic
experience sofar
Prof. Reynir Arngrímsson
President of the Icelandic Medical Association
April 2nd, 2020
The objective
of pandemic
preparedness
• To prevent the pandemic reaching the
country if possible.
• To reduce its domestic spread to the extent
possible.
• To administer medical treatment and care to
patients.
• To protect the people involved in the
diagnosis, treatment, and care of patients.
• To protect social infrastructures and people
responsible for indispensable services in the
country.
Experience
and strategy
• Strong Civil Protection and Emergency
Management due to volatile nature
• Wheather, Volcanic activity, Earthquakes, Epidemics
• Testing – Quarantine – Social distancing –
Suppression
• Clinical testing (symptomatic and healthcare
workers)
• Epidemiology in practice – the deCODE approch
(random sample testing)
• Prediction model updated daily
• Economical measures to secure jobs and
companies
• Strong public and media relation
COVID-19 statistic – Iceland (02.04.2020)
Number %
Tests 20.930 5,7% of
population
In Quarantine 7.166 2,0%
Completed
Quarantine
8.945 2,5%
Positive
covid-19
1.319 6,3%
of tested
In hospital 43 3,2%
ICU 12 1%
Deaths 4
Number of COVID positives
Ref: www.covid.is
Landspitali and deCode samples (02.04.2020)
Landspitali
(clincal indication)
DeCode
population sample
Number of positive
tests
1.229 90
Number tested 9.671 11.218
% COVID-19
positive
12,7% 0,8%
Diagnosed in Quarantine – 54% (more than half
been isolated before symptoms appear)
COVID-19 statistic – age distribution
(range 3 months – 96 years)
COVID-19 in Iceland
Prediction model
(covid.hi.is)
Detailed information on
the prediction model
can be obtained at
www.covid.hi.is
Data retrieved
02.04.2020
Cumulative confirmed
infections in total
(covid.hi.is)
indicates that the
strategy applied in the
population is working
with flattening of the
curve and avoiding
exponential spread of
infection
Unstrained
exponential
growth
Active cases
each day
(covid.hi.is)
Likely
prediction
Pessimistsic
prediction
Cumulative total
hospitalizations
(covid.hi.is)
Hospitalization
each day (total)
(covid.hi.is)
ICU- cumulative
admittance
indicates the
most pessimistic
prediction which
puts strain on
the weakest part
of the health
system
Total number of
individuals in ICU
each day
(covid.hi.is)
Main predictions
with data
through April
2nd 2020
• It is expected that throughout the epidemic,
about 1800 individuals in Iceland will have
been diagnosed with COVID-19, but the
number could reach as high as 2500
individuals, according to the pessimistic
forecast.
• It is expected that the number of diagnosed
individuals with an active disease will peak in
the first week of April and will at that time
probably be about 1200, but could be as
many as 1700 individuals according to the
pessimistic forecast.
• (covid.hi.is)
Main
prediction
(cont.)
• The greatest burden on health care services
due to hospital admissions will be around
mid-April. At that time it is expected that
around 60 individuals will be hospitalized but
the pessimistic forecast predicts 90
individuals.
• It is expected that during the epidemic,
approximately 26 individuals will become
seriously ill (i.e. hospitalized in intensive care
units), but this number might turn out to be
as high as 40, according to the pessimistic
forecast.
• (covid.hi.is)